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アグ モカシン except during the war

. Demographic distortions caused by the one-child policy, is rare in the history of mankind (except during the war), the consequences have begun to emerge. Workforce reduction and migrant workers in cities slowed in recent years has been the main reason for soaring wages, and production costs surge in private investment is the main reason for the disappearance. This is the source of China's current economic difficulties, "Made in China" gold standard fade incentives. This is just the beginning of the economic problems arise long period. Shanghai's birth rate has been lower than the lowest of the G7 countries, Italy and the country's birth rate is only 1.19%. If you do not adjust the long-term population policy, our aging population dependency ratio of the total community population will rise from the current 12.3% 2030 23.9%. Chinese labor supply in 2017 by the shortage of surplus turned to 2030, this gap is likely to exceed 50 million. China's total population will peak after 2033 plummeted, down to 1.29 billion by 2050, 940 million in 2100. This process, regardless of family income and expenditure burden, financial burden, as well as social ethics, family structure, will face a severe test. My opinion, today's population policy does not relax, and indeed economic suicide. Long-period labor supply of an economic category. Even today the immediate lifting of the one-child policy,アグ モカシン, the labor market over the next 20 years there will not be much help, but after a sustainable economic development are also very important. As to its meaning in the moral, human rights areas,アグ モカシン, there is not going to repeat. In fact,UGG ブーツ 人気, the population policy in the current economic environment, was 23.9%. Chinese labor supply in 2017 by the shortage of surplus turned to 2030 "too late, never too late." This Chinese old saying, experienced the test of time, I believe it applies to today's population policy. China's one-child policy began in the seventies,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, eighties became mandatory policy since, at the time of the economic and social environment,UGG ブーツ 正規品, the management has played a population of some help, but also for the 1980s and 1990s the economy off, reducing a burden. However, when the demographic dividend has been exhausted, labor supply close to its peak, more importantly, the number of dual structure caused by migrant workers migrant workers has dropped significantly. This brings soaring wages in recent years, weakening the industry (especially export manufacturing) This traditional growth engine. Considerable significance in the structural dilemma of China's economy emerged today,UGG ブーツ 店舗, with the reversal of population structure has a direct relationship. China's population structure, with three relatively distinct characteristics. The first is policy-driven. Demographic changes appear larger in human history, and is often associated with famine, disease or war. Changes and the popularity of modern contraceptive social life patterns also affected the birth rate, but like China affect fertility curve, changes in social relations through policy intervention, it is unprecedented
。独生子女政策所造成的人口结构扭曲,在人类史上也是罕见的(战争时期除外),其后果也开始浮现出来。劳动人口减少和农民工进城放缓,乃近年工资飙升的最主要原因,而生产成本骤增又是民间投资消失的主要原因,UGG ブーツ 人気。这是目前中国经济困境的源头,是“中国制造”金字招牌褪色的诱因。这只是经济长周期出现问题的开始。上海的出生率已经低过G7国家中最低的意大利,而全国的出生率仅有1.19%。如果人口政策长期不作出调整,UGG ブーツ 店舗,我们的老龄抚养人口占社会总人口的比率会由目前的12.3%升到2030年的23.9%。中国劳动力供应于2017年由过剩转向短缺,至2030年,这个缺口可能超过5000万人。中国的总人口在2033年见顶之后将直线下滑,缩减到2050年12.9亿,2100年9.4亿。这个过程中,无论家庭收支负担、财政负担,以至社会伦理、家庭结构,都将面临严峻考验。笔者看来,今天不放松人口政策,实际上是经济慢性自杀。劳动力供应属于经济长周期范畴。哪怕今天立即解除独生子女政策,对今后20年的劳工市场也不会有多少帮助,但是对之后的经济可持续发展又十分重要。至于其在道德、人权范畴内的意义,这里就不赘言。其实,人口政策在目前的经济环境下,年的23.9%。中国劳动力供应于2017年由过剩转向短缺,至2030“亡羊补牢,未为晚也”。这条中国古训,经历过时间的检验,相信也适用于今天的人口政策。中国的独生子女政策,始于七十年代,自从八十年代变成强制性政策,在当时的经济、社会环境下,对于管理人口起到了一定的帮助,也为上世纪八、九十年代经济起飞,减轻了一定的负担。然而,当年的人口红利已经消耗殆尽,劳动力供应接近顶峰,更重要的是,UGG ブーツ アウトレット,二元结构所造成的农民工进城打工的人数已经大幅下降。这带来了近年工资的暴涨,弱化了制造业(尤其是出口制造业)这个传统增长引擎。在相当意义上,中国经济今天所出现的结构性困境,与人口结构上的逆转有着直接的关系。中国的人口结构,有着三个比较明显的特征。首先是政策主导。人类历史上人口结构出现较大变化,往往和饥荒、疾病或战争关联。现代社会生活模式的改变及避孕手段的普及,也影响了出生率,UGG ブーツ 正規品,但是像中国这样通过政策干预影响生育曲线、改变社会关系,则是史无前例的

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